Shortage of labour and skilled workers

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Where skilled workers are in short supply in an economy, a significant number of vacancies for employees with certain skills remain unfilled because suitably trained people are not available on the labour market [1]. A labour shortage is felt in a company when it is unable to fill a significant number of vacancies [2]. Shortages of skilled workers and labour in general impact negatively on companies’ competitiveness and the safety and health of their employees, and jeopardize the potential for the economy and society to grow and provide welfare. Shortages of skilled workers and labour are caused primarily by demographic change.

According to an annual survey by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), companies in Germany were unable to fill around 45% of vacancies for skilled workers in the first half of 2022. The survey shows microenterprises to be particularly affected, being unable to fill 62% of vacancies for skilled workers. For large companies, the proportion was 24% [3]. Overall, the rate has almost doubled over the past ten years. Most vacancies, accounting for just under 58% of the total, are at the medium qualification level (completed apprenticeship) [4].

Many sectors are affected by a general shortage of labour, but the shortage of qualified specialists is particular acute. It is relatively easy to train workers, even those without professional experience, for unskilled positions; difficulties in recruiting people to such positions are more a symptom of companies’ being perceived as unattractive employers, and offering inadequate remuneration [5].

The shortage of skilled workers particularly affects STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) vocations: in 2023, a shortage of 285,800 workers was noted, including 132,100 vacancies for skilled workers and 122,300 for experts (persons educated to degree level) [6]. This jeopardizes both the digital transformation and the development of technologies and products, including those for combating climate change. Areas affected include, for example, expansion of renewable energies, upgrading and expansion of the electricity grids, development of new types of battery and establishment of a circular economy. Decarbonization in energy-intensive industries is also stalling [7]. A shortage of skilled workers also exists in the public sector: according to the German Civil Service Federation (DBB), the state was short of over 550,000 employees in 2023. Demand is particularly high in nursing and geriatric care, local government, schools and children’s daycare facilities. At the same time, tasks are increasing in areas such as all-day childrens’ care, property tax reform, the digitalization of public administration, and basic child benefits. The areas of education, immigration and internal security present particular challenges [8].

The situation on the traineeship market is already strained, with more and more companies unable to find trainees in sufficient numbers. In 2023, almost half of all companies in the chambers of industry and commerce that offer traineeships were affected [9]. Besides demographic reasons, this is also due to a low and barely increasing proportion of women in traineeships, at just 16.1% [10]. In the STEM sector, numbers of trainees and first-year university students alike are falling [11; 12].


  • What is accelerating the trend, and what is slowing it down?

    One of the main causes of the shortage of skilled workers and labour in general is demographic change, manifested in an ageing population. The situation will be exacerbated drastically by the imminent retirement of the baby boomer generation. In the worst-case scenario, the number of people in gainful employment in Germany may fall by almost four million by 2030 (from the 2020 baseline figure) [13].

    The demand for skilled workers will continue to rise, as enormous challenges – both in companies and in society as a whole – must be overcome. These challenges include, above all, the digital transformation in all sectors, measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation (specifically adaptation and transformation of industry and the economy to carbon neutrality), environmental protection and nature conservation, and sustainable education.

    A large proportion of persons registered as unemployed lack the necessary qualifications for the vacant positions. Just over half of Germany’s 2.4 million unemployed are qualified only for unskilled work. A regional mismatch also exists between where jobseekers live and where vacancies are to be found [14].

    Inadequate school education reduces the supply of skilled workers. The number of young people without a school-leaving certificate has barely fallen in recent years: in 2021, 6.2% of young people left school without a school-leaving certificate [15]. The number of young people who have not completed a course of vocational training has been rising for many years. Men and persons with a migration background are particularly affected [16].

    Labour migrating to Germany has primarily come from the Member States of the European Union (EU). Migrants from Europe thus make an important contribution to assuring the supply of skilled workers. However, net immigration from EU countries fell by around 65% between 2015 and 2021 [17] – a trend that is expected to continue in the coming years. This decline in immigration may further exacerbate the existing shortage of skilled workers [18]. Increased migration from countries outside Europe could compensate at least partly for this decline. Policymakers in Germany are attempting to increase rates of gainful employment by means of a range of measures, such as the Skilled Immigration Act (FEG). The aim is to attract skilled workers from third countries, and also to make use of the potential offered by refugees and integrate them – as quickly as possible – into the labour market [19]. To this end, the recognition of foreign professional qualifications is to be facilitated, bureaucratic hurdles are to be reduced and suitable training measures offered.

    According to the Munich-based ifo Institute, the reduction in individual workers’ working hours is exacerbating the labour shortage: the proportion of women working full-time has fallen in recent years, while the proportion of men working part-time is increasing [20]. Many people work part-time owing to family commitments: to care for relatives, or owing to a lack of childcare facilities. Calls for (overall) shorter working weeks or shorter working lifetimes may differ in their effects. On the one hand, they may exacerbate labour shortages; on the other, they can reduce stress, prevent working days being lost due to illness, and make jobs more attractive, thus bringing people into employment who for a wide range of reasons are unable to work full-time.

    Efforts are being stepped up to bring workers aged 55 and over into the workforce in greater numbers and retain them, and at the same time to make better use of the potential of older employees [21]. External infrastructures for childcare and care for relatives can help women and parents to become better integrated into the labour market and increase their working hours. Finally, people with disabilities could also be provided with access to the primary labour market if, for example, tasks and working hours were adapted, tandem models (an able-bodied worker and a worker with a disability working as a team) adopted, and complex production processes broken down into smaller work steps [22].

    If companies make efforts to provide attractive working conditions, greater flexibility, reasonable remuneration and age and ageing-appropriate jobs, and to address employees’ individual needs, it is easier for them to attract and retain skilled workers. New and improved training concepts and the swift offer of employment following completion of training can help to reduce the high drop-out rates among trainees and facilitate recruitment of personnel.

    The labour shortage could be offset by the use of artificial intelligence (AI). Examples can be found in numerous sectors of how AI can partially or fully automate work steps and relieve or replace people. This technology is, however, still in its infancy, and suitable applications need to be developed, programmed and, not least, continually monitored [23; 24]. In principle, many new technologies such as robots (including collaborative robots), drones and exoskeletons have the potential to relieve human beings of physically arduous work or routine tasks. This would reduce the need for personnel, and would keep employees healthy and fit for work for longer, provided the effectiveness of these technologies is proven and the risks associated with them are known.

  • Who is affected?

    Almost all sectors are affected by the shortage of skilled workers and labour. A need for action exists in particular in the following sectors: the construction industry and trades, hospitality and gastronomy, the electrical trades, the sanitary, heating and air conditioning (SHAC) trade, the electrical industry, the power generation and distribution industry, vehicle maintenance, metal construction, information technology, healthcare, schools, nursery schooling [3; 12; 25].

  • Examples
  • What do these developments mean for workers’ safety and health?

    Among the most serious consequences of the shortage of skilled workers is the additional stress on the existing workforce, particularly in services that cannot be postponed or replaced by technical solutions. Additional work tends to increase with rising company size; smaller companies tend to play safe and decline offers or orders, as the total workforce capable of assuming tasks is smaller [26].

    Owing to the shortage of labour, workloads are increasing significantly. Performance and deadline pressure is significantly higher than in the past, and employees are more likely to work overtime, skip breaks, and suffer more accidents as a result. A high level of stress at work also has a negative impact on private life: employees have less time for a healthy work-life balance attained by spending time with family and friends and on sport and hobbies [27].

    Stress and pressure on the one hand and insufficient recreation and relaxation on the other have a negative impact on health. According to the 2023 DAK Health Report, labour shortages in an employee’s own area of work are linked directly to a higher health risk for the employee concerned. Over half of these workers are often or very often tired and exhausted; 35% report insomnia or musculoskeletal complaints, and over 23% suffer from headaches. These disorders increase steadily in line with the personnel shortage experienced [27].

    With the exception of the IT professions, the sickness rate in occupational groups with a persistent labour shortage is significantly above the average. Absence from work owing to mental illness is particularly high among workers in the care professions, childcare and education. Above-average absence from work owing to musculoskeletal disorders occurs in the sanitary, heating and air conditioning (SHAC) trade, in driving, and machinery and vehicle-related occupations [27].

    Employees in the remaining workforce are under pressure not to exacerbate the staff shortage by taking sick leave themselves. The greater the awareness of the shortage, the greater these employees’ inclination to come to work even when they are ill, thereby exacerbating their own health risk. For example, 70% of employees in companies regularly experiencing staff shortages worked during the preceding twelve months despite being ill; in companies without staff shortages, the figure was only 41% [27].

    A survey of employees conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) confirms the negative impact of staff shortages on the workforce. Workers who are under greater stress as a result are significantly less likely to state that they enjoy their work and that the working atmosphere in their companies is good. They are instead more likely to state that they are stressed by their work, see fewer opportunities for career development in their companies and are more likely to be afraid of being unable to complete their own work [28].

    More than half of those surveyed also stated that they were unable to take the necessary care at work [28]. A risk also exists of occupational safety and health aspects being neglected as a result of time pressure. This in turn presents a risk of workplace accidents increasing [29]. Permanently high levels of stress and the resulting dissatisfaction with the work situation can lead to employees reducing their working hours, or changing jobs or sectors. This creates a vicious circle: the stress upon the remaining employees increases further, their working conditions deteriorate and the image of sectors and vocations suffers. As a result, staff shortages worsen further still.

    The risk of mistakes and accidents occurring may also rise when companies are obliged to call on unqualified and inadequately trained staff owing to a shortage of skilled workers, and without having the required resources to train them and equip them for the work [30]. The same applies to the integration of people from other countries: besides language and communication problems, work perceptions can vary greatly, as can perceptions of what constitutes safe and healthy work. This may be an obstacle to acceptance and observance of the regulations and recommendations in place in Germany.

    At the same time, heterogeneous workforces may also provide opportunities for companies. People of different ages and genders, from different ethnic backgrounds and with different physical and mental abilities can learn from each other and complement each other’s perspectives and approaches. Ultimately, in the best case scenario, efforts to integrate as many people as possible with different needs can improve working conditions for everyone.

    Employees themselves can benefit from strong competition for personnel and wide availability of jobs. In addition, many companies are making more effort in the interests of their employees, for example by providing training opportunities, better working conditions, and functioning occupational safety and health arrangements.

  • What observations have been made for occupational safety and health, and what is the outlook?
    • The greater the shortage of skilled workers, the greater the number of more attractive alternative employment opportunities for such workers, and the greater their willingness to change employer. Assuring safe and healthy working conditions is a means of recruiting and retaining staff.
    • A culture of prevention has the potential to promote a favourable image of a sector: it can ensure that fitness for work is maintained through to the statutory retirement age, and can counteract staff shortages. At the same time, this requires lifelong learning and age and ageing-appropriate work.
    • Measures both for recruiting personnel (e.g. flexible working, working from home) and for dealing with physical and mental stress at work caused by staff shortages must be accompanied by suitable prevention measures offered by the statutory accident insurance institutions. This may necessitate research into new forms of work such as remote working, or new impacts on health such as Zoom fatigue.
    • An increasingly diverse world of work calls for occupational safety and health measures and means of communication that are adapted to the different target groups.
    • Digitalization and automation of processes and company procedures can help to relieve employees of tasks, for example by the use of robots to support production steps, or by digital completion of documentation and administrative tasks. The use of new technologies and of familiar technologies in new contexts must be analysed from an occupational safety and health perspective in order for risks to be identified at an early stage.
    • Cooperation between the German federal government, state administrations and statutory accident insurance institutions in the National Occupational Safety and Health Conference (NAK) provides an opportunity to set out concrete measures for structural solutions to the shortage of skilled workers, in the form of the joint occupational safety and health objectives and fields of action of the Joint German Occupational Safety and Health Strategy (GDA).
  • Sources (in German only)

    [1] Fachkräftemangel. Hrsg.: F.A.Z. BUSINESS MEDIA GmbH, Frankfurt 2023 (abgerufen am 27.11.2023)

    [2] Personalmangel. Hrsg.: F.A.Z. BUSINESS MEDIA GmbH, Frankfurt 2024 (abgerufen am 18.1.2024)

    [3] IAB-Forschungsbericht: Auswirkungen des Angriffskrieges auf die Ukraine auf die Betriebe in Deutschland und weitere Ergebnisse des IAB-Betriebspanels 2022 (non-accessible) Hrsg.: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg 2023 (abgerufen am 20.11.2023)

    [4] IAB-Stellenerhebung. Hrsg.: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nürnberg 2024 (abgerufen am 18.1.2024)

    [5] Fachkräftmangel - keine einfache Lösung durch höhere Löhne. Hrsg.: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Köln 2023 (abgerufen am 28.11.2023)

    [6] MINT-Fachkräftemangel weiterhin gravierend. Hrsg.: Norddeutscher Rundfunk, Hamburg 2023 (abgerufen am 20.11.2023)

    [7] Fachkräfte- und Qualifizierungsbedarf zur Industriedekarbonisierung. Hrsg.: Prognos AG Berlin, Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 5.12.2023)

    [8] Personalmangel im öffentlichen Dienst. Hrsg.: dbb beamtenbund und tarifunion, Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 30.11.2023)

    [9] Immer mehr Betriebe von Azubi-Mangel betroffen. Hrsg.: Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammer (DIHK), Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 5.12.2023)

    [10] MINT-Fachkräftelücke geht konjunkturbedingt leicht zurück. Hrsg.: Haufe-Lexware GmbH & Co. KG, Freiburg 2023 (abgerufen am 18.1.2024)

    [11] MINT-Frühjahrsreport 2023. Hrsg.: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Köln 2023 (abgerufen am 7.12.2023)

    [12] MINT-Herbstreport 2023. Hrsg.: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Köln 2023 (abgerufen am 20.11.2023)

    [13] Babyboomer hinterlassen Lücke im Arbeitsmarkt. Hrsg.: Statista GmbH, Hamburg 2022 (abgerufen am 30.11.2023)

    [14] Fachkräftemangel: Einige Hebel und viele Haken. Hrsg.: Quadriga Media Berlin GmbH, Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 22.11.2023)

    [15] Jugendliche ohne Hauptschulabschluss - Demographische Verknappung und qualifikatorische Vergeudung. Hrsg.: Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh 2023 (abgerufen am 8.12.2023)

    [16] Berufsbildungsbericht 2023. Hrsg.: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 8.12.2023)

    [17] Freizügigkeitsmonitoring: Jahresbericht 2022. Hrsg.: Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge, Nürnberg 2023 (abgerufen am 8.12.2023)

    [18]Fachkräftemangel im Mittelstand - Woher kommen die Fachkräfte von übermorgen? Hrsg.: Deutscher Mittelstands-Bund (DMB) e.V., Düsseldorf 2020 (abgerufen am 5.12.2023)

    [19] Fachkräfte für Deutschland.Hrsg.: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz, Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 29.11.2023)

    [20] Heute arbeiten 45 Millionen Beschäftigte so viel wie 40 Millionen früher. Hrsg.: DER SPIEGEL GmbH & Co. KG, Hamburg 2023 (abgerufen am 30.11.2023)

    [21] Innovationen für und durch ältere Menschen. Hrsg.: Geschäftsstelle der Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI), Berlin 2023 (abgerufen am 11.12.2023)

    [22] BGW Trendreport 2022. Hrsg.: Fraunhofer IAO - Center for Responsible Research and Innovation Berlin 2022 (abgerufen am 2.11.2023)

    [23] Mit KI gegen den Fachkräftemangel?Hrsg.: Norddeutscher Rundfunk, Hamburg 2023 (abgerufen am 12.12.2023)

    [24] Fachkräftemangel: GenAI kann akuten Bedarf bei hochqualifizierten Jobs lindern. Hrsg.: McKinsey & Company, Inc., Düsseldorf 2023 (abgerufen am 12.12.2023)

    [25] Deutschlands Schulen leiden unter Fachkräftemangel. Hrsg.: Robert Bosch Stiftung GmbH, Stuttgart 2023 (abgerufen am 12.12.2023)

    [26] Fachkräftemangel – mit gravierenden Folgen. Hrsg.: Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammer (DIHK), Berlin 2021 (abgerufen am 20.11.2023)

    [27] DAK-Gesundheitsreport 2023: Gesundheitsrisiko Personalmangel - Arbeitswelt unter Druck. Hrsg.: DAK-Gesundheit, Hamburg 2023 (abgerufen am 13.12.2023)

    [28] Müde durch Mehrarbeit? Folgen von Personalengpässen für Beschäftigte und Handlungsbedarf für Unternehmen. Hrsg.: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Köln 2023 (abgerufen am 19.12.2023)

    [29] Unfallursache Zeitdruck. Hrsg.: VDI Fachmedien GmbH & Co. KG Unternehmen für Fachinformationen, Düsseldorf 2017 (abgerufen am 1.2.2025)

    [30] Warum passieren Unfälle? Hrsg.: Dr. Curt Haefner-Verlag GmbH, Heidelberg 2020 (abgerufen am 1.2.2024)

Contact

Dipl.-Psych. Angelika Hauke

Work Systems of the Future

Tel: +49 30 13001-3633


Dipl.-Übers. Ina Neitzner

Work Systems of the Future

Tel: +49 30 13001-3630
Fax: +49 30 13001-38001