Methodology of the Risk Observatory

The Risk Observatory aims to identify, swiftly, changes that will impact upon the world of work, institutes of higher education, schools and children's daycare centres. What developments are set to change the world of work and education for insured persons over the next five to ten years, and where, how and to what extent? What do these changes mean for the prevention of occupational accidents, occupational diseases and work-related health hazards? Where are particular prevention efforts required, and what form could they take?

The Risk Observatory supports proactive prevention activity by the German Social Accident Insurance Institutions by identifying top trends across and within sectors, i.e. trends that will have a major impact on the safety and health of insured individuals.

  • Starting point: The collection of trends

    In each survey round, trend categories and the trends assigned to them (see Figure 1) constitute the starting point for the Risk Observatory. Each survey round conducted by the Risk Observatory is therefore preceded by a status review of current trends from a wide range of sources (print and online).

    Graphic of a light blue cloud on white background with the trend category

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    Figure 1: Word cloud for the trend category of "Climate change, nature and resource conservation, the low-carbon economy", with trends
    Source: IFA

    The collection of trends will be continued throughout the entire third survey round, in contrast to previous survey rounds.

    Sources of trends include websites and journals of scientific bodies and research institutes (e.g. Fraunhofer, Helmholtz, Max Planck, the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)), institutes for futures research, the European Commission, ministries of the German federal government, reinsurers and national associations (e.g. the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA), the German Trade Union Federation (DGB)). Trends may also originate from committees of the German Social Accident Insurance (DGUV) and the individual accident insurance institutions or the media, or may be found in reports from the DGUV Trend Search.

    In spring 2023, when the surveys for the 3rd round started, the trend collection comprised 117 trends assigned to the following ten trend categories:

    • Digital transformation and connectivity
    • New technologies
    • Globalization
    • The economy
    • New work
    • Climate change, nature and resource conservation, the low-carbon economy
    • Infrastructure
    • Mobility
    • Demographic developments and diversity
    • Social affairs and health

  • Surveys for the identification of top trends

    The Risk Observatory identifies top trends from the results of two independent surveys:

    Sectoral relevance survey

    Sectoral experts from the German Social Accident Insurance evaluate all trends in the survey round with respect to their influence on the safety and health of insured persons in the experts' respective sectors. The assessments of the sector experts in each sector are averaged for each trend. Where a trend is expected to have a major impact in the coming five to ten years, it is included in the pool of top trends. Account is taken of how many sectors are impacted by the trend.

    Future relevance surveys

    Experts at research establishments and societies and at occupational safety and health institutes within and outside the German Social Accident Insurance evaluate trends within their sphere of expertise. For example, if the expert possesses expertise on a trend that is assigned to the trend category of "digital transformation and connectivity", all trends in this trend category are presented to that expert for evaluation. Experts are not obliged to state an assessment. The experts' assessments for each trend are averaged. All experts estimate the influence of each trend on the world of work in the coming five to ten years. In addition, occupational safety and health experts assess the impact on the safety and health of insured persons. A future relevance survey is conducted for each trend category, i.e. ten parallel surveys of future relevance in the third survey round.

  • Evaluation procedure following performance of the surveys referred to above

    The future relevance survey is to be conducted every three years. In the meantime, however, the collection of trends is being expanded and newly identified trends must be evaluated to permit their inclusion among the top trends should their influence be sufficiently great. The "New types of work" subcommittee and its Trend Search group evaluate these newly identified trends at regular intervals. Figure 2 illustrates the procedure in the Risk Observatory.

    The picture shows a flowchart which illustrates the procedure in the third survey round

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    Figure 2: Methodological procedure in the Risk Observatory's third survey round
     Source: IFA


  • Risk Observatory outcomes

    Continuously updated collection of trends

    The collection of trends is updated at regular intervals and published online.

    List of prioritized trends

    The evaluation of the trends in the future relevance surveys and the evaluation procedure between the survey cycles by the trend search group results in a ranking of the trends for each trend category. From these rankings, top trends can be identified across all sectors. The sectoral relevance survey identifies trends with a major impact in numerous sectors. The results of the two surveys complement each other. Ideally, the results are congruent or overlap.

    Descriptions of the top trends

    For each top trend, a brief description is prepared that presents the trend, describes its impact on the safety and health of insured persons and identifies sectors that are particularly affected. These descriptions are published on the Risk Observatory's trend portal as soon as they have been produced.

    Production of the trend descriptions is based on searches and, if necessary, accompanied by detailed interviews with experts.

    Report

    An overall report summarizing the descriptions of the top trends is produced and published at the end of the three-year cycle.

    Sector profiles (optional, available on request)

    Sector profiles summarize all top trends affecting a sector and describe them, taking into account their mutual influences and the context of the sector. Sector profiles can be produced at the request of the prevention managers of the German Social Accident Insurance Institutions.

    Further processing of top trends

    The top trends are presented at the conference of prevention managers of the German Social Accident Insurance. The conference may initiate further processing of individual top trends, for example in the DGUV's expert committees and subcommittees or in the form of dialogue, for instance in a workshop or an expert discussion.

  • Chronology

    The Risk Observatory has been in existence since 2011. The first two survey rounds followed a five-year cycle, the first running from 2012 to 2016, the second from 2017 to 2021.

    The third survey round is now to be conducted over a shorter, three-year cycle (see Figure 3).

    Flowchart that illustrates the three-year cycle of the surveys done by the Risk Observatory

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    Figure 3: Current three-year cycle of the Risk Observatory
    Source: IFA


Contact

Dipl.-Psych. Angelika Hauke

Work Systems of the Future

Tel: +49 30 13001-3633


Dipl.-Übers. Ina Neitzner

Work Systems of the Future

Tel: +49 30 13001-3630
Fax: +49 30 13001-38001