Climate change

picture of a chimney with a dark sky behind it, the smoke clouds from the chimney spell out CO2

Source: Tomas Ragina - stock.adobe.com

Combustion and other uses of fossil fuels on a huge scale since the beginning of industrialization, and intensive agriculture, coupled with the threat to natural carbon sinks posed by deforestation and the draining of peatland, are leading to progressive increases in greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere and to growing global warming. This is already accompanied by clearly evident and increasingly irreversible changes in the oceans and on land which jeopardize human safety and health and the equilibrium of ecosystems throughout the world [1; 2].

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases cause additional energy to be released into the Earth’s climate system. 91% of this energy is absorbed by the oceans. Their temperature is now rising at a growing rate, and marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity. Absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) by the oceans also reduces their pH values, i.e. increases their acidity [2; 3].

The Earth’s "cooling system" is coming under increasing pressure: it is estimated that 50% of the world’s glaciers will be lost by 2100 [4]. The earth’s surface temperature is rising particularly sharply in the Arctic [3]. As the Arctic sea ice melts, a higher proportion of the sun’s energy is absorbed, the ocean becomes warmer and, as a result of this and of thawing permafrost on land, the sea level rises [5]. The temperature rise differs from region to region. Globally, however, it was already more than twice as steep between 2006 and 2015 as in the period from 1901 to 1990 [2; 3].

The ocean stratification or density contrast in the Arctic Ocean is also increasing, owing to melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This is weakening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream, and impairing the supply of nutrients and oxygen in the ocean layers and marine ecosystems [3; 6; 7].

Climate changes are also already clearly evident in Germany: in the past decade, the temperature at ground level was around 2 °C higher than during the decades of the earliest records (1881-1910). Since the 1960s, the earth's surface temperature worldwide has been rising at an unprecedented rate: with the exception of 1994, the warmest ten years have all occurred since 2000; the number of "hot days", i.e. with temperatures above 30 °C, is increasing and the number of "ice days", on which the temperature is below 0 °C throughout the day, is decreasing. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, as are days with low soil moisture, particularly in north-east Germany and the Rhine-Main region. The North Sea and the Baltic Sea are heating up. At the same time, statistics show an increase in heavy rainfall events in Germany [2].

Higher temperatures are changing Germany's vegetation. They are also having an impact on exposure to allergens and the spread of vectors transmitting infectious agents, such as ticks and mosquitoes.

Exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, expressed as both the mean peak UV irradiance and the mean annual UV dose, has risen in Germany over the last decade. This is due mainly to a decrease in cloud cover in spring and summer as a result of climate change. Low-ozone events over Europe are also increasing as a result of climate change, leading to significantly elevated UV irradiance for short periods [8].


  • What is accelerating the trend, and what is slowing it down?

    How climate change progresses will be determined largely by the level of current and future global greenhouse gas emissions. By 2040, the global surface temperature is expected to be at least 1.5 °C higher than in the period between 1850 and 1900. If fossil raw material resources continue to be used actively and more intensively than today (climate scenario SSP5-8.5 [1]), an increase of 4.4 °C by 2040 can even be expected. Any increase in global warming intensifies climate change; the World Health Organization therefore views climate change as the greatest health threat to humanity [9]. The complexity of climate change, and its interactions and mutual influences upon other global challenges such as pollution, resource consumption and loss of biodiversity, increase the likelihood of the planet being pushed further beyond its limits, irreversible tipping points being reached and an increased burden of disease being placed on the population, which will also affect the world of work [1; 4; 10; 11]. 3.3 to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in an environment that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In the medium to long term, this is likely to lead to an increase in global migration, partly due to the supply of food and drinking water being jeopardized in affected areas [1; 12].

    Measures for climate change mitigation, in particular for decarbonization, resource efficiency and the preservation and expansion of natural carbon sinks, counteract climate change [13]. The faster these measures are implemented, the more effective they will be [1; 14; 15]. Important measures for decarbonization and resource efficiency include, for example, the expansion of renewable energies, development of storage technologies , measures for energy efficiency, establishment of a circular economy and the shift to sustainable mobility. Comprehensive decarbonization also improves air quality and has positive effects on many people’s quality of life, health and fitness for work, particularly in conurbations [16]. A number of German laws and strategies (such as the latest version of the Climate Change Act, the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, the National Water Strategy, the National Hydrogen Strategy and the German government’s Sustainability Strategy) are based on recognition that climate change mitigation and adaptation in all sectors is crucial for preventing and mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on health, prosperity, living and working conditions, and on social and economic stability [1; 15; 16].

    International and national laws, regulations and binding agreements, raising of awareness in society of the consequences of climate change in dialogue with citizens, and government subsidy schemes for the green transformation are effective means of counteracting climate change by collective and individual action. Rethinking personal attitudes towards nature, consumption, nutrition, mobility and quality of life leads in the best case to more responsible behaviour in consideration of the climate, and is then also accompanied by positive effects on health [e.g. 11; 17]. Raising of awareness in this way can also be initiated effectively in the corporate environment, where it has greater reach, as people tend to conform to the social norms that are considered valid in their environment [18].

  • Who is affected?

    Climate change fundamentally affects everyone, and in many areas of life.

    In Germany, the following sectors of the economy are particularly affected by climate change: agriculture and forestry, the power generation and distribution industry, water resource management, healthcare, fisheries, transport and logistics, trade, construction, the chemical industry and parts of the public sector. Climate change may also have a negative impact on tourism (e.g. in ski resorts). Outdoor workers are particularly affected by UV radiation, heat, other extreme weather events and the spread of vectors and allergens, some previously unknown.

  • Examples (only in german)
  • What do these developments mean for workers’ safety and health?

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that by the end of the 21st century, climate change will be the cause of over nine million deaths a year worldwide [12]. A recent study shows that 277 human pathogenic diseases alone could be exacerbated by climate change [19]. At the same time, the destruction of ecosystems due to global warming leads to biodiversity loss. As a result, discoveries on a considerable scale of potential medicinal substances that could have protected people’s health and fitness for work are lost [e.g. 20].

    Selected examples of the interrelationship between climate change and safety and health at work in Germany are described below in more detail. The effects of extreme weather events and conditions resulting from climate change, such as heat, drought, heavy rainfall and storms, are covered in the trend description: Natural disasters and extreme weather.

    Solar UV radiation

    The protection of outdoor workers against solar UV radiation is becoming increasingly topical. Rising exposure to UV radiation at ground level can increase the risk of illnesses caused by it, such as skin cancer and eye damage. UV radiation is also associated with erythema, sunburn, premature skin ageing and immunosuppression [8]. It is estimated that by the end of the 21st century, the annual incidence of skin cancer will have increased by a further 2,500 to 3,300 cases [21]. Skin cancer caused by work-related exposure to UV radiation is already a key occupational disease covered by the German Social Accident Insurance [22].

    In contrast to melanomas, which can occur all over the body, basal-cell and squamous-cell carcinomas usually develop on frequently exposed areas of skin [23]. Since the strongest risk factor is cumulative high lifetime exposure to UV radiation, outdoor workers are at particularly high risk of developing basal-cell and squamous-cell carcinomas [24; 25]. Certain medications can also greatly increase the skin’s sensitivity to light, which increases the risk of sunburn [26]. Since medication use generally increases with age, older employees could be particularly affected. In addition, exposure to UV radiation is still often underestimated, particularly during low ozone events in the spring, when the skin is not yet accustomed to the sun and people have not yet begun taking measures to protect against it [21].

    Rising exposure to UV radiation also accelerates ageing of materials (such as plastics) and fading of fluorescent colours on high-visibility clothing. Intervals for the testing of serviceability, safety or sufficient luminosity must therefore be adjusted accordingly [27].

    Allergens and toxins

    Permanently higher temperatures in Germany lead to shifts in growing seasons. Many plants begin flowering earlier in the year, which extends the pollen season. Quantities of pollen can also be expected to increase, owing to higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Many plants with allergenic potential thrive at higher temperatures. A rise in temperature can therefore favour the spread of allergenic plants (such as ragweed, an invasive species). For the reasons mentioned, sensitized employees can be expected to suffer more heavily from the effects of allergen exposure, with adverse consequences for their health and performance. The number of people affected by hay fever has already risen sharply since the early 2000s [8]. Physical fatigue and increased tiredness caused by the medication can increase the likelihood of occupational accidents. Some plants and pests produce toxins in combination with sunlight or CO2 [8]. Outdoor workers, although not the only ones to suffer hay fever, are more likely to come into contact with toxins from flora and fauna by way of their occupation.

    Infectious diseases

    Vectors that transmit infectious agents, such as mosquitoes and ticks, or pests such as processionary caterpillars, which can trigger allergic or toxic reactions or mechanical irritation, have also spread geographically as a result of higher temperatures [2; 28]. The growing distribution of ticks increases the risk of contraction of Lyme disease, or of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in persons not vaccinated against it. Outdoor workers are particularly at risk. Cases of West Nile and dengue fever, attributed to transmission of the pathogens by mosquitoes, have already been recorded in Germany [16]. Over 20 pathogens can be transmitted by the Asian tiger mosquito, incidence of which is spreading. Invasive fungal infections are also on the rise worldwide, particularly among immunocompromised persons. In Europe, "Candida auris", a fungal pathogen, has already caused isolated outbreaks in hospitals [29] and therefore also potentially threatens employees there. Thawing permafrost also constitutes a potential threat of infectious disease, as pathogens, possibly very old, are trapped in the ice and can be released as it thaws [5]. Vibrio bacteria can be transmitted in seawater and brackish water at water temperatures above approximately 20 °C. These bacteria can cause cholera or bacterial gastroenteritis, among other diseases. It is feared that as heatwaves become more common, vibrio bacteria in seafood and fish will also become more prevalent in Europe. Unless personnel are educated on the subject and hygiene measures adjusted, this could also lead to an increase in infections along the processing chain [30]. A recent study shows that 58% of all known human infectious diseases caused by pathogens may be exacerbated by climate change [19].

    Mental stress

    Climate change can affect mental health in many ways and thus have an impact on the world of work. Firstly, direct experience of disasters, caused for example by extreme weather events triggered by climate change, can lead to psychological stress reactions or post-traumatic stress disorders [16]. Vocational changes necessitated by the green transformation can also be a stress factor, and may be accompanied by overtaxing, fear of the future and existential fear [16]. Secondly, "climate anxiety" may arise. This particularly affects young people, and poses a threat to their mental health if others do not take their distress seriously or if they themselves are unable to escape the feeling of helplessness by gaining a sense of self-efficacy [31].

    Stability and security

    The increase in extreme weather events and disasters brought about by climate change is already jeopardizing infrastructures, and in turn the stability of global supply chains. Supply bottlenecks and failures can hit small and medium-sized companies particularly hard.

    Insufficient decarbonization has a negative impact on ecosystems and human living environments worldwide. This also applies to working environments, as climate change is already exacerbating the conditions under which much work is carried out. This can be counteracted by climate adaptation measures. However, since human ability to adapt to climate changes is limited and the negative impacts of climate change on safe and healthy work should be contained as quickly as possible, effective prevention activity requires climate change mitigation measures, as well as those for adaptation [e.g. 14; 16]. The impacts of global warming increase exponentially with each marginal increase. Should greenhouse gas emissions remain the same or rise, scope for action to make work safe and healthy will also shrink in the medium to long term.

    In addition, global warming exacerbates social and health inequalities, since an individual’s socio-economic status influences their means for adjusting to climate change and their resilience in the face of rising costs for energy, food and housing [32; 33]. Energy measures required by the government to combat climate change may also be easier for the wealthy to implement [34]. Should transformation to a carbon-neutral economy result in people losing their jobs and phases of re-skilling be accompanied by a drop of income, financial security may be at risk. All of this has a negative impact on the cohesion of democratic society and on political stability [33]. In the medium to long term, global warming also jeopardizes functioning of the welfare state: more frequent and more intense impacts detrimental to health and the economy place greater demands on social security systems and may push them to the limits of their resilience in some places [1; 4; 16].

  • What observations have been made for occupational safety and health, and what is the outlook?
    • Mitigating climate change is not an explicit part of the German Social Accident Insurance's mandate. It nevertheless has positive effects on the safety and health of employees. Where conditions and processes in companies and sectors change in order for legal requirements for decarbonization measures to be met, the German Social Accident Insurance is at hand to support these changes constructively with prevention services. Furthermore, according to Section 13 of the Federal Climate Change Act, bodies discharging public duties shall give due consideration to the purpose of this Act and to the targets set for its implementation.
    • The German Social Accident Insurance has already drawn up rules and regulations concerning a number of impacts of climate change (heat stress, exposure to solar UV radiation, extreme weather events) and provides support in the form of preventive activity concerning adjustment to climate changes. With regard to other climate changes which at present are less direct in their impact on insured activities in Germany (such as rising sea levels, acidification of the oceans, ocean stratification), the statutory accident insurance system, like other stakeholders, still lacks analyses of forecasts and mutually influencing factors. Such analyses are needed for assessment of whether, how, when, on what scale and in which sectors or among what groups of people the climate changes referred to above will affect safety and health during insured activities in the future.
    • Existing preventive and safety measures (e.g. limit values for natural UV exposure at work) must be developed further, not least to create acceptance and awareness.
    • All specialists and parties involved in occupational safety and health must be made aware of the relevance of climate change to safe and healthy working.
    • The research community is called upon to deliver information on types of pathogens and allergens and their distribution. This knowledge can then serve as a basis for preventive measures.
    • Any new combined exposures arising from climate change should be identified and given adequate consideration during assessment of work activities and processes and in the rules, regulations and codes of practice. Risk assessments must be amended accordingly.
    • Measures for adaptation to climate change and protection against it can lead to conflicts with occupational safety and health objectives (e.g. where shade is provided by the planting of trees producing allergenic pollen). Conflicting objectives must be analysed in advance.
  • Sources (in German only)

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Contact

Dipl.-Psych. Angelika Hauke

Work Systems of the Future

Tel: +49 30 13001-3633


Dipl.-Übers. Ina Neitzner

Work Systems of the Future

Tel: +49 30 13001-3630
Fax: +49 30 13001-38001